Can we hold you to that?

4/27/2009

(2) Comments

The government commits to trimming the fat:

The 54 public sector bodies that employs just over 15,000 persons racked up pre-tax losses and deficits netting $15.8 billion across them after generating $218.5 billion in income.

Currently, the government is undertaking a rationalisation programme that will see 52 inactive public bodies wound up, 35 merged and 21 privatised cutting by almost half the 200 that are currently in existence.


Read Article here.

Rolin Oliver

The Government we can no longer afford

4/24/2009

(6) Comments

As I have suggested before, there isn't much point to paying attention to the specifics of the budget, particularly the expenditure side. Because all of that can (will) be changed on a whim without the people being informed or consulted whatsoever. For example, in the shadow of the announcement of the massive $18 Billion increase in taxes, we learn that the government, in cahoots with the Opposition has already added $9 Billion in spending to the budget. Lets just wait around till November when we get the "Gasp! I had no idea we could have had flood rains/hurricane" budget in before I really pay attention to what they say they are going to spend (and really by then the budget is mostly retrospective).

I am deeply concerned though about how much this is costing. It begs the question, what all is this money paying for? And more importantly can we really afford all this government? This post was inspired by an insightful letter to the Gleaner (4/22) by a Ms. Joan Williams, where she suggested that we have too many politicians and state agencies and suggested a few that might need to be consolidated or removed all together. So below I am asking about the value of having the following agencies and government structures:

Why do we need:

Rolin Oliver

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Hijacked!

4/21/2009

(2) Comments

I was flabbergasted when I first heard the news. An airplane had been hijacked in Jamaica!!?? I remember thinking that I must have misheard. I know Montego Bay has its share of crime and violence, but a hijacking??!! It seemed so surreal. Almost akin to the incongruity of skiing in Dubai...at first glance, the proposition just does not quite make sense.

I keep wondering why there were no armed guards inside the terminal? I gather something seemed amiss when he walked through the terminal and armed guards may have been able to avert the incident altogether. How was he able to take a gun inside the terminal (undetected)? Was there a breakdown in security protocol at Donald Sangster International Airport? Or was the established protocol simply ineffective?

Better still, will anyone be held accountable for this colossal failure and not simply scapegoated? Or will we resume 'business as usual' and continue to accept the ineptitude?

I know many will probably disagree but I think the hijacker's success, albeit limited by hijacking standards, is symptomatic of the broken state of Jamaica. But I will leave that for another day...

Quick Hits

4/17/2009

(11) Comments

  • The Questions not asked. I highly recommend reading an article in today's Gleaner by R. Anne Shirley, as she unearths some of the salient questions that should have been asked publicly about at the budget at a recent public hearing in Parliament. Here is a key point:

The national debt of $1.16 trillion at February 2009 grows by tens of billions each year. The debt hit the $1 trillion milestone back in March 2008.

But, ironically, the Opposition chose to quiz Golding on the budgeted expenditure for the Office of the Prime Minister and its related departments and agencies for over six hours on the first day of the sitting of the standing finance committee which met on Tuesday to review the Estimates of Expenditure for the current fiscal year 2009-2010.

Yet the estimates relating to the Ministry of Finance were reviewed for a scant 15 minutes.

The committee was told that the Opposition spokesman on finance - Dr Omar Davies - had submitted written questions to Minister of Finance Audley Shaw who furnished him with private written responses to some of these questions, while promising to furnish the rest at a later date.

Read article here

So lets be realistic, finance is after all a logical discipline, the JLP’s promises cannot be funded without new taxes or abandoning existing projects and activities, lets call a spade a spade.


Rolin Oliver

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Where have I seen this movie before?

4/16/2009

(4) Comments

In the 1970s Jamaica was one of the leading producers bauxite and alumina in the world and the industry was the leading earner of foreign exchange. In 1973 the government introduced their 'free education' policy, committing to finance education up to the tertiary level for all citizens. Also in 1973, the world was plunged into a global economic downturn due to the first "Oil Shock" of 1972-73. Faced with major fiscal crisis as a result of the global downturn, the government of the day instituted the controversial Bauxite Levy. The Levy produced a huge windfall in its first year enabling the government to finance its commitment to providing comprehensive universal education for the first few years. This as we all now know was not sustained. The Levy made Jamaica's bauxite expensive to produce, and by the early 1980s Jamaica had lost major ground to its competitors. The cost of providing free education, not getting any lower, was eventually abandoned.

Fast forward to 2009 we again find ourselves in a global economic downturn, the government is facing a fiscal crisis and we are now just over a year into a free education (up to the secondary level) and free hospital visit policy. What should be done? How can the government navigate these treacherous times? In a column from yesterday's Observer, (4/15) former Junior Minister in the Ministry of Labour and Social Security, Floyd Morris suggests that a $1 out of ever $10 be taken out of incoming remittances, the countries current leading earner of foreign exchange, in order to off set the costs of providing these services for free. At current levels of remittances, such a tax could recoup US $150-$200 Million to the government coffers. More than enough to pay for a whole lot of schooling and a whole lot of health care. Other elements of the plan include, legislation to protect the use the funds and having a board oversee it.

Leaving aside for now the question of whether or not the government should have made, or should continue make the commitment to provide free education and free hospital visits, I want to address this idea of taxing remittances. A 10% tax would take away money that goes directly the neediest people to divert it into government bureaucracy. That is US $150-200 Million that is intended for paying rent, purchasing food, clothing and helping people to start micro enterprises. Such an onerous tax would surely impact peoples willingness and ability to send money. Jamaicans abroad are just as affected by this economic crunch as everyone else. Having to pay, say an extra US $10 to send US $100 would make a big financial dent in their personal budgets. Additionally, the last thing Jamaica needs is yet another board to administer a government program, especially one that would be made up of overseas Jamaicans as suggested. This seems terribly inefficient way to go about things. Finally legislative protection is no guarantee, it did not prevent the Jamaican government from dipping into National Insurance Funds two years ago.

This is a well meaning suggestion from Mr. Morris, and I can understand where he is coming from, however history would suggest that it is an unsustainable and indeed an undesirable approach to financing governance.

You can read Mr. Morris' article here.

Rolin Oliver

Jamaica A Paramour Between Two Lovers

4/14/2009

(3) Comments

After reading yesterday's (4/13) distressing headline story (Bloody Easter) on the Observer's website, a friend was moved to write this piece. Thanks for sharing bro:

No one person can deny the majestic beauty that can be found on the small island paradise of Jamaica. Jamaica’s charm has hypnotized innumerable individuals from every continent and kind. I remember being taught in my adolescent years not to run down two things – girls and buses. But, if Jamaica was a girl – I’m sorry; Usain and Asafa both would have competition from me. Her beauty is captivating, no matter if you are visiting for the first time or you have never left her shores, Jamaica always finds a way to seduce you with her calming and tranquil nature. She’s full of surprises and always has something new to offer, so much so, that her courtiers are heart broken every time they have to leave. Frequently, I find myself like many others reaching for the smallest of excuses to visit her shores, even if for a day or two.


It is because of this passionate love affair with her that I am torn up inside when I see the rampant killings on my regal island. This can’t be the Jamaica Land We Love, The Land of Wood and Water, Out of Many One People! Jamaica once referred to as the Land of Smiles has become the Murder Capital of the world. How? When? And where can eleven Murders take place in the span of three days without and display of national urgency? A few years ago a prominent politician commented on the situation and said it to be, “a National challenge of unprecedented proportions”. So why do I believe that not enough is being done? In fact we are failing miserably.


Currently, I am in the process of reading the Autobiography of Gandhi and I am amazed and inspired by his moral character. He strongly believes in what he calls, Satyagraha, where he teaches non-violence against one’s opponent, but that he “the opponent”, must be weaned from their error by patience and compassion. Honestly, in this case I do not believe that Jamaicans should sit by compassionately, patiently waiting for criminals to miraculously change their ways. However, unfortunately this appears to be the case. When do we declare a State of Emergency? Where is Our Bat phone? When will we who love Jamaica too much to let her be decimated, rise up, unite and say “NO MORE”. Now is the time for a unified voice and collective power to rise and disarm this beast. We need Rasta’s hand in hand with Catholics, Anglican’s hand in hand with Moravians, and COGOP hand in hand with Seventh Day Adventists. Enough of the bickering against each other, we all have a common enemy that is causing chaos in our lives, and threatening the future of Jamaica’s children without prejudice.


My great-grandmother taught me this, “what sweet yu, will sour yu!” So now I find myself relegated on the sidelines a mere spectator, one observing this beautiful woman involved in an abusive relationship. I can hardly believe my sweet Jamaica in the embrace of an illicit lover so sinister that in plain sight, he enjoys inflicting his most agonizing blows and punishment across her body. He relishes in her public embarrassment. He can only be compared to Willie Lynch, whose purpose was to dominate and break the will of those under his control. Yet, while I see this happening, my paralyzing inaction makes me out to be nothing but a nerd. A nerd scared to interfere with what is right in front of me, a monster destroying something so beautiful. Why can’t I muster up the strength to save this damsel? Why can’t I stand up to her illicit lover and let him know this abuse has to stop! Who cares if his first name is CRIME and his last name is VIOLENCE.

Rolin Oliver

Shouts from the Back Bench

4/13/2009

(3) Comments

Election campaigns in Jamaica don't seem to be much more than a traveling circuses at times. There are these huge motorcades, punctuated by rousing speeches and musical accompaniment. These speeches very often are politicians trading insults at their opponents and trying to one up each other with witty barbs. Its as if they were selectors at a sound clash. All this would be pretty entertaining if it weren't so consequential. No number one liners or zingers can make that funny. As much as one can freely opt out of the political process; not join a party, not attend the campaign minstrel shows, not vote; there is no escaping the results of poorly crafted policies.

This weeks edition of 'The Gavel' in the Gleaner is focused on Peter Phillips and his apparent struggle with adapting to the unfamiliar role as a mere 'back bencher' after years of holding prominent positions in both government and opposition for most of his parliamentary career. He is cited for breaching protocol recently by speaking out of turn. As much as the point of the article was to speculate on Phillips' motivation (is he seeking to challenge for leadership again? Is he merely looking to promote his new think tank?) I was struck by this theory:
It could also be the case that he now takes the job of back bencher seriously and, like Ronald Thwaites, is ready and prepared to speak on any issue since he is not shackled with a shadow portfolio responsibility.

If we only had more parliamentarians taking the job of back bencher seriously! I don't mind an MP talking out of turn every now and then if it demonstrates that he is engaged in the process and care about what's going on. A fundamental weakness in our constitution is that Parliament isn't really the house a representation as it is purported to be. It has devolved into a place where opposing executive committees (one with real power and the other with non) present their ideas of how they think the country should be run and their colleagues bang on their desks on cue while they speak. So called 'back benchers' have little say and oftentimes don't seem to even care.

This week's Gavel also had this little gem:
...it was really refreshing to see South East St Elizabeth Member of Parliament Franklyn Witter stay back in the House after the estimates of expenditure were tabled last Tuesday, to peruse the document by himself.


We do hope Witter and all other MPs have gone through the document page by page, line by line, and are ready for the standing finance committee this week.

I find this article strangely encouraging, regardless of Peter Phillips motives, one can only hope the actions of Messers Phillips and Witter will spark a new level of interest among their fellow MPs to become more involved in the business of governance.

Rolin Oliver

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Quick Hits

4/10/2009

(5) Comments

Rolin Oliver

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The Choke Hold

4/08/2009

(1) Comments

Yesterday the Jamaican government laid out the Estimates of Expenditures for the 2009-2010 Fiscal year. A brief look at the budget gives a stark reminder of the stranglehold which debt has had on the Jamaican economy for quite some time. This year the garrote has been tightened. Debt obligations will account for 56% of government spending. It is estimated that $159 Billion will be made in interest payments alone. This is more than the estimates for education and health care combined. The only silver lining in all this is that the government has no choice but to finally offload its loss making enterprises.

In Sunday's Gleaner (4/5), United Nations Development Program (UNDP) representative Minh Pham, argued for the social partnership debate between government and the private sector to expand to include the formation of a "Kingston Club" agreement, in the mold of the "Paris Club." The idea is for creditors to consider renegotiating the terms of debt owed to them for the sake of the long term health of the debtor.

The high interest rate regime of the Bank of Jamaica has been touted by the bank's Governor as the best way to defend the Jamaican dollar despite its failure to do so in the past. A few years ago Member of Parliament (MP), Ronnie Thwaites aptly described it as "the most massive transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich since slavery" and President of the Jamaica Employers Federation ,Wayne Chen recently called high interest rates, the road to ruin. Considering that over half of Jamaica's debt is owed to local financial institutions, it is not unreasonable to request for them to make some of the same sacrifices everyone else is being asked to make.

I would encourage you to read Pham's column here.

Rolin Oliver

Officer Grayson, We did know ye! We knew thee oh too well!

4/04/2009

(2) Comments

The truth is stranger than fiction:

In a dramatic twist in the fake cop case, 18 policemen from the Mount Salem station in St James have been taken off front line duties, their pay docked by half, and an inspector is now under investigation after Anti-Corruption Branch police smashed a section of the multi-million dollar lotto scam in Montego Bay.

According to Police Commissioner Rear Admiral Hardley Lewin, who made the announcement during a press conference yesterday, the cops were nabbed after intense investigations into the case involving Kourtney Grayson, who was on Wednesday freed of impersonating a police officer and unlawful possession of property in the Montego Bay Resident Magistrate's Court when the director of public prosecutions entered a nolle prosequi in the case.

Lewin said the rogue cops recruited Grayson and used him to shake down players involved in the lotto scam which police say pulls in US$30 million annually.


"He never tricked the system, but through the deliberate action on the part of the police in St James he was recruited," Lewin said.

I am speechless. Thanks to reader, Mahoe Drive who clued us in that their was more than met the eye with in this story.

Rolin Oliver

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Old Pirates, yes, they rob I...

4/03/2009

(1) Comments

Last month, the Jamaica Public Service Co. (JPS) announced that it needed a 23% increase in the non fuel component of the electricity rate. At a press conference featuring the top brass of the company, Jamaicans were duly warned that if this increase was not granted, the JPS would be unable to upgrade its aging infrastructure and improve the service they provide. Board chairman Tomofumi Fudoka put it this way:

"Unless JPS becomes financially sound no one will make investment in base load facilities," he told journalists at a press conference at the JPS head office in Kingston on Friday.

Pointing to a worst case scenario if the OUR rejects its request for a rate increase, the chairman said they would be forced to reduce the annual capital expenditure which would affect any new electricity generation programmes in the future.

Having a reliable and efficient source of energy is absolutely critical to a developing economy like Jamaica. Without such, the country will stagnate even more and would have little prospect for the future growth. The words of the JPS chairman are not simply a business request, they are ostensibly a threat. To temper his veiled threat Fudoka laid out the dire alternative:
...without the increase, the company would have to turn to international lenders for the money, but these institutions would be wary of lending to a company in the financial position of JPS.

"It is very crucial that the JPS maintain a certain credit status, otherwise there would be no new project because no bank would lend money with such a weak financial credit structure," Fukuda claimed.

In an earlier post, I argued that Jamaica needs to open up the power generation market even more so in increase competition and stimulate investments in alternative energy. This is needed to reduce the strangle hold that the JPS has on the country.

From the Observer (4/3) we find out that the JPS has paid a substantial dividend to its shareholders. This in spite of the fact that the company has not made a profit since 2006. Usually dividends are paid from profits, and if a company incurs a loss, not only is there no dividend, shareholders take a hit in the value of their equity. So whats the deal here? Well, in the absence of a profit, the JPS has for the second year running, paid a dividend from their 'retained earnings.' As I understand it, retained earnings are from profits which are then reinvested into a company. Typically, earnings are 'retained,' rather than paid out in dividend, in order to increase the capital of a company, which then can be used make investments to improve or expand the company. Something smells here...

According to the Observer article, the JPS has been guaranteed a 'return on equity' of 14.85% each year, and this is why they have depleted the capital of the company for the sake of making these dividend payments. Who made this deal? Who on Earth thought this was a good idea? How could this possibly be in the long term interest of the JPS, or the Jamaican people? It seems to me that the overseas investors (who hold an 80% equity stake) are pillaging the JPS and ripping of the Jamaican people in the process. This is a sham:

Yesterday, an industry analyst said that by remitting profit to its shareholders, JPS will reduce its capital and therefore the level of profit that it would be required to make in Jamaica - based on a return on equity formula worked out with the OUR.

JPS currently has a guaranteed 14.85 per cent return on equity based on its 2004 tariff review. The light and power company is presently seeking to increase the real return on equity to 21.6 per cent in its current tariff review submission.

JPS hopes to increase its non-fuel revenue by 60 per cent in an effort to secure $7 billion return on equity for 2009, and plans to get it by increasing energy rates to customers by as high as 97 per cent.

Who is looking out for the consumer here? Someone get the OUR on the line:
...the Office of Utilities Regulation (OUR) is not concerned that the raids will negatively affect JPS's ability to raise funds for expansion. This is because it benefits consumers (all things being equal) for JPS to rely more on cheap loans than equity to finance projects.

"Equity is more expensive than debt. So from the consumer point of view it is better to finance projects by debt rather than equity," said a high-level technical source at the OUR who requested anonymity. "The banks prefer them to have the equity, but from a consumer point of view it is preferable to finance projects by debt rather than equity, so paying out a lot of dividends is not an issue."

In a normally a functioning world, the statement 'equity is cheaper than debt' would be farcical. Interest is not paid on equity like it would be on a debt. An equity investor becomes a partner in the business and takes on the risks and rewards which come along with running the business. Just like the equity partner the JPS took on earlier this year. This however is Bizzaro World, and the OUR representative is 100% correct. Equity is cheaper than debt in the case of JPS because the OUR guarantees a 14.85% return on equity!!! How my dear OUR friend is decreasing the capital of the company (essentially making it worth less) and taking on more debt (for a company which has not made a profit in three years), a good thing for the consumer? Especially when we have been told by the chairman that people's light bill will have to be increased in order to secure THE DEBT!!!!

It seems to me that the Government of Jamaica did the country a grave disservice the way they privatized of the JPS, and would have been better off keeping it. This approach of reducing capital and increasing debt, while raising prices is as harmful as it is unsustainable. The real problem is, the JPS is a monopoly and the majority owners (Marubeni and their new partners TAQA) know that at the end of the day, the government will have no choice but to bail out the JPS if it gets into real trouble. It is heads we win tails you lose. This arrangement needs to be revisited immediately and the pillaging put to an end.

Rolin Oliver

Grayson back on the streets

4/02/2009

(4) Comments

This strange story gets even stranger. Now the news is that the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) has decided to discontinue the case against Courtney Grayson for impersonating a police officer. It is being dropped at this time apparently in the 'interest of justice.' There is some legal term called nolle prosequi which is being invoked, this allows the DPP to reinstate the charges at a later date if she so chooses...huh? This is all too confusing for me.

The real question is, now that 'Officer Grayson' is off the street, who is going to protect civilian Grayson from the police? From the Observer:

Grayson, who is from Spanish Town, was denied bail when he first faced the court earlier this month.

At the time, his attorney, George Clue, who refused to comment yesterday, told the court that Grayson was "severely beaten" when he was taken to the Freeport Police Station after his arrest on March 8 and was not taken to see a doctor.

Rolin Oliver

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